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Geert Wilders' PVV wins the 2023 Dutch general election

Summary

On 22 November 2023, the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, won 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch House of Representatives — becoming the largest party in the chamber for the first time and roughly doubling its 2021 total of 17 seats. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] International media described the result as “one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II”; the win was built on a single-issue focus on migration (which the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study confirmed was the largest concern among voters), combined with a deliberate softening of Wilders’ public persona after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz signalled that she might include the PVV in coalition negotiations. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] In a televised debate Wilders declared he would be “a Prime Minister for all Dutch people”, a framing that journalists identified as the rhetorical hinge that let wavering right-wing voters consolidate behind him. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

Tactics used

  • issue ownership of migration, framed as the central political question after the fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 over family reunification for refugees [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • deliberate softening of the most polarising policy proposals during the campaign window, after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in coalition talks [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • “Prime Minister for all Dutch people” framing in the closing televised debates, opening coalition space with VVD, NSC and BBB without conceding the migration issue [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • rhetorical consolidation against a single opponent (GL/PvdA’s Frans Timmermans), exploiting VVD and NSC refusal to rule out coalition with either bloc [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • absorbing voters from rival right-of-centre protest parties (FvD, JA21, BBB, NSC) once those parties’ momentum stalled, by offering the most consistent political identity on the right [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

Background

The 2021 general elections produced the fourth Rutte cabinet, a coalition of VVD, D66, CDA and Christian Union under Prime Minister Mark Rutte. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] The government’s attempt to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle ran into opposition from the newly founded BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB), which entered the House in 2021 with a single seat and surged through 2022, winning the March 2023 provincial elections and, with them, decisive indirect leverage over the Senate. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

The cabinet resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four coalition partners failed to agree on a Rutte proposal to tighten family reunification rules for refugees fleeing armed conflict; CDA backed the proposal while CU and D66 opposed it, ending negotiations. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Rutte announced he would not lead the VVD into the snap election, and a broad slate of senior party leaders — including Sigrid Kaag (D66), Wopke Hoekstra and Pieter Heerma (CDA), Attje Kuiken (PvdA), Kees van der Staaij (SGP), Farid Azarkan (Denk), Liane den Haan, Nilüfer Gündoğan, Sylvana Simons and Speaker Vera Bergkamp — also announced they would not return. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

What happened

The snap election was called for 22 November 2023; by then the PVV had gone from 10.79 percent (17 seats) in 2021 to a consistent polling lead through autumn 2023. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Three dynamics defined the campaign’s closing weeks. First, BBB’s early lead — built on the March 2023 provincial win — collapsed once Pieter Omtzigt announced his New Social Contract party (NSC), which immediately took votes from BBB, and then declined again when it remained unclear whether Omtzigt would serve as prime minister; NSC and BBB voters then largely migrated to either VVD or PVV. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Second, Wilders’ debate performances were widely credited by analysts with turning his polling lead into a result, with migration becoming “the largest issue of the election” and boosting Wilders’ appeal as the established issue owner. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Third, after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz said she might include the PVV in coalition talks, Wilders visibly softened his language; in one debate he declared he would be “a Prime Minister for all Dutch people”, a frame that journalists identified as central to widening his appeal. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

When migration became the dominant issue, the right-wing populist space consolidated. The leader of the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, Frans Timmermans, was disliked by many right-wing voters, and since neither VVD nor NSC directly ruled out coalition with PVV or with GL/PvdA, right-wing voters rallied around Wilders specifically to prevent a Timmermans premiership. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] The Dutch Parliamentary Election Study, a joint project of 38 political scientists and sociologists, confirmed after the vote that migration was the largest concern among voters and identified the PVV as the “issue owner”; it also concluded that about a third of the electorate had switched their preferred party during the campaign, including across ideological blocs, partly driven by low trust in politics and a preference — especially among PVV voters — for a strong leader after past political crises. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

Results

On election day, 22 November 2023, the PVV won 37 seats with 23.49 percent of the vote — a gain of 20 seats over 2021 — and became the largest party in the 150-seat House for the first time. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] The left-leaning GroenLinks–PvdA list finished second with 25 seats (15.75 percent, +8), VVD third with 24 seats (15.24 percent, −10), and NSC fourth with 20 seats (12.88 percent, new). [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Smaller parties rounded out the remainder: D66 9 seats (6.29, −15), BBB 7 (4.65, +6), CDA 5 (3.31, −10), SP 5 (3.15, −4), Denk 3 (2.37, ±0), PvdD 3 (2.25, −3), FvD 3 (2.23, −5), SGP 3 (2.08, ±0), CU 3 (2.04, −2), Volt 2 (1.71, −1) and JA21 1 (0.68, −2). [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Registered voters totalled 13,473,750, with national turnout at 77.75 percent — a decrease of 0.96 percentage points from 2021. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] All four parties of the incumbent Rutte coalition lost seats. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

Outcome

Verdict: won.

The PVV won the 22 November 2023 snap election, becoming the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time with 37 of 150 seats. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Cabinet formation began immediately; in February 2024, Kim Putters (PvdA) was appointed informateur and recommended an extra-parliamentary cabinet of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Under informateurs Elbert Dijkgraaf and Richard van Zwol the four parties reached a coalition agreement on 15 May 2024, which they announced on 16 May; immigration policy was heavily prioritised on the incoming government’s agenda, with coalition representatives stating they would embrace the “strictest” asylum policy, and several observers described the new government as the most right-wing in recent Dutch history. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] On 28 May 2024 civil servant Dick Schoof — a former intelligence director and independent — was nominated as Prime Minister after Ronald Plasterk withdrew over integrity concerns and other candidates declined; the 29 cabinet members were sworn in on 2 July 2024. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] Internationally, Wilders was congratulated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other European far-right leaders including Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken and Santiago Abascal. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election] On election night, D66 leader Rob Jetten said Yeşilgöz “left the door wide open for Wilders” and blamed the VVD campaign for allowing “the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal”; Yeşilgöz replied that “It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that.” [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

Lessons

  • Issue ownership of a single salient topic (here, migration) lets a party consolidate the right when fragmentation has produced a swarm of smaller right-of-centre protest vehicles — voters returned to the PVV as FvD, JA21, BBB and NSC each lost momentum. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • A credible coalition “openness” signal from a larger centre-right rival (VVD’s Yeşilgöz) can be enough to justify rhetorical moderation in the campaign’s closing stretch — and the moderation itself becomes the message (“Prime Minister for all Dutch people”) without requiring policy concessions. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • A common opponent on the other flank (here, GL/PvdA’s Timmermans) drives right-wing consolidation when both larger centre parties refuse to rule out coalition with either bloc; the negative partisanship axis can outweigh ideological differences inside the right-of-centre space. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • High voluntary voter switching (roughly a third of the electorate moved parties during the campaign, per the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study) means the decisive coalition is built in the final weeks, not the long tail — making debate performance, single-issue framing and a unifying closing message disproportionately valuable. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]
  • Winning the most seats does not automatically deliver the prime ministership: the resulting four-party cabinet picked a non-partisan intelligence director, Dick Schoof, as PM — a reminder that coalition arithmetic can require the largest party to trade the top job for policy control of the migration file. [source: dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election]

Sources

Disclaimer: Included as a teaching example of campaign craft, not as endorsement.

Sources & verification

  • dutch-wilders-pvv-wins-2023-general-election — grounding: primary — license: cc-attribution
  • Rewritten: 2026-07-15 via rw2-q8 batch.

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Last verified: 2026-07-15