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Power Analysis

Summary

Power analysis is the diagnostic discipline of naming the actors in a campaign’s environment — base, targets, allies, opposition, neutral audience — and the relationship dynamics between them. The result is a structured map of who moves, who blocks, who matters, and what resources (constituency, money, narrative, organisation) each party brings.

Body

Power analysis answers the operating question “can we win, who is in our way, and what do we need to shift?” before the campaign commits to tactics. The diagnosis distinguishes primary target (the actor who can grant the demand), secondary targets (the actors who influence the primary target), allies (those who share the campaign’s interest in the demand), and the wider base (the constituency who supplies the campaign’s volunteers, donors, and legitimacy). Opposition is mapped similarly (active opposition, neutral-but-tilted, neutral, sympathetic). [source: repower]

The SCOPE matrix (Support, Constituency, Organisation, Politics, Execution) gives a multi-dimensional diagnostic: the Support dimension captures the active base; Constituency is the universe of potential supporters; Organisation is the campaign’s institutional infrastructure; Politics is the public-opportunity dimension; Execution is the operational capacity [source: repower]. A campaign that has Support and Constituency but is weak on Organisation and Execution is one whose diagnosis should drive capacity-building investments, not more outreach.

Power analysis sits adjacent to but distinct from power mapping (a stakeholder-mapping visualisation) and political-economy analysis (the broader mapping of structural interests, including institutional actors and incentive structures). It is the diagnostic discipline that the alignment-chart methodology (Momentum Community’s Alignment Chart; European Greens strategy grid) operationalises. [source: momentum-alignment-chart]

The most consequential failure mode is the campaign that skips the power analysis and starts with tactics — the campaign ends up acting on targets and allies it has not actually sized, pursuing demands that the primary target does not in fact have the power to grant, or confronting opposition it has not actually located. The diagnosis is cheaper than the tactics. [source: midwest-academy]

Use it for

Running a power-analysis session at the start of a campaign; diagnosing a stalled campaign with the SCOPE matrix; building a stakeholder map that distinguishes base, target, allies, and opposition; training a new campaign team in the canonical analytical framework.

FAQ

What is power analysis?

Power analysis is the diagnostic discipline of naming the actors in a campaign’s environment — base, targets, allies, opposition, neutral audience — and the relationship dynamics between them [source: repower]. The result is a structured map of who moves, who blocks, who matters, and what resources (constituency, money, narrative, organisation) each party brings.

What question does power analysis answer?

Power analysis answers the operating question “can we win, who is in our way, and what do we need to shift?” before the campaign commits to tactics [source: repower]. The diagnosis distinguishes primary target (the actor who can grant the demand), secondary targets (the actors who influence the primary target), allies (those who share the campaign’s interest in the demand), and the wider base (the constituency who supplies the campaign’s volunteers, donors, and legitimacy). Opposition is mapped similarly (active opposition, neutral-but-tilted, neutral, sympathetic).

What does the SCOPE matrix add to the diagnosis?

The SCOPE matrix (Support, Constituency, Organisation, Politics, Execution) gives a multi-dimensional diagnostic: the Support dimension captures the active base; Constituency is the universe of potential supporters; Organisation is the campaign’s institutional infrastructure; Politics is the public-opportunity dimension; Execution is the operational capacity [source: repower]. A campaign that has Support and Constituency but is weak on Organisation and Execution is one whose diagnosis should drive capacity-building investments, not more outreach.

How is power analysis distinct from power mapping?

Power analysis sits adjacent to but distinct from power mapping (a stakeholder-mapping visualisation) and political-economy analysis (the broader mapping of structural interests, including institutional actors and incentive structures) [source: momentum-alignment-chart]. It is the diagnostic discipline that the alignment-chart methodology (Momentum Community’s Alignment Chart; European Greens strategy grid) operationalises.

What is the most consequential failure mode of skipping power analysis?

The most consequential failure mode is the campaign that skips the power analysis and starts with tactics — the campaign ends up acting on targets and allies it has not actually sized, pursuing demands that the primary target does not in fact have the power to grant, or confronting opposition it has not actually located [source: midwest-academy]. The diagnosis is cheaper than the tactics, which is why the Midwest Academy’s classic organising tradition opens every campaign cycle with a power-analysis session.

Open Questions

  • The integration question: should the power analysis be a one-time document, a living dashboard, or a quarterly diagnostic?
  • The negation question: when the power analysis surfaces asymmetric opposition (an entity that has structural power the campaign cannot move) is the answer to change tactics, change demand, or abandon the campaign?

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