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Maldivians demand the resignation of President Nasheed, 2011-2012

Summary

In 2011-2012, sustained protest waves — initially economic, later framed as defending Islamic values, and finally responding to Nasheed’s arrest of the chief justice — drove Maldivian police and military to defect from President Mohamed Nasheed’s government, forcing his resignation on 7 February 2012. [source: nv-database]

Tactics used

Tactics used

  • assemblies-of-protest-or-support
  • vigils
  • public-rallies

Background

The Maldives is an Indian Ocean chain of islands whose existence is threatened by rising sea levels. [source: nv-database] In 2008, after thirty years of one-party rule, Maldivians adopted a new constitution and held multi-party elections that included their first direct presidential contest. [source: nv-database] The new government of President Mohamed Nasheed inherited large debts and ongoing 2004-tsunami recovery, and on the IMF’s advice pursued an austerity program that raised prices of food and other goods by roughly 20 percent. [source: nv-database] During the 2011 Arab Awakening, Maldivians began to protest declining living standards. [source: nv-database]

What happened

From 1 to 6 May 2011, thousands of Maldivians protested nightly in locations including Republican Square and Artificial Beach in the capital Male, holding the government accountable for economic mismanagement and demanding the resignation of President Nasheed. [source: nv-database] Police used tear gas and batons to disperse protesters, arresting more than 300; pro-Nasheed supporters also rallied in the streets. [source: nv-database]

Between May and December 2011, the opposition re-formed around a new framing: that Nasheed’s government was not aligned with Islamic values. [source: nv-database] This coalition of six political parties and several NGOs, including some that had backed Nasheed in 2008, organized two mass rallies. [source: nv-database] On 23 December 2011, demonstrators rallied “to defend Islam,” and on 24 December to support “moderate Islam.” [source: nv-database] Thousands attended each event, flying banners and Maldivian flags, wearing T-shirts, and chanting slogans such as “We stand united for Islam and the nation” and “No idols in this holy land.” [source: nv-database] Police and the Maldives National Defence Force watched closely but did not intervene. [source: nv-database]

On 16 January 2012, President Nasheed ordered the arrest of the chief justice of the Maldives Criminal Court, accusing him of inadequately prosecuting corruption under the previous government. [source: nv-database] The arrest triggered 22 days of continuous protests demanding the judge’s release and Nasheed’s resignation. [source: nv-database]

On 7 February 2012, Maldivian police defied government orders to break up the protests and joined the protesters; the Maldives National Defence Force also refused orders to disperse the crowds. [source: nv-database] Realising he had lost the loyalty of the security services, President Nasheed resigned later that same day. [source: nv-database]

Key people & organizations

  • Thousands of Maldivian demonstrators (opposition-aligned)
  • Six political parties and allied NGOs (including former Nasheed supporters)
  • Pro-Nasheed counter-demonstrators
  • Maldives Police Service
  • Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF)
  • President Mohamed Nasheed (resigned)
  • Chief Justice of the Maldives Criminal Court (arrested 16 January 2012)

Outcome

Verdict: won. (10/10 on the GNVAD scale.)

The campaigners’ central demand — President Nasheed’s resignation — was achieved on 7 February 2012. The 22-day judicial protest produced direct defections from police and military to the opposition side, after which Nasheed resigned. [source: nv-database]

Lessons

  • Persistence across shifting frames (economic → religious → judicial) kept a single demand — Nasheed’s resignation — alive for ten months and gave new constituencies a reason to join at each turn.
  • Security-force defection, not street numbers, is what ended the regime; building credibility with rank-and-file police and soldiers over the long run converted their refusals into decisive leverage.
  • Authoritarian-leaning re-uses of state power (the arrest of the chief justice) can backfire by unifying the opposition and triggering the defection that ends the regime.

Sources


Disclaimer: Included as a teaching example of campaign craft, not as endorsement.

Sources & verification

  • nv-database — grounding: primary — license: link-only