Theory of Change
Definition
A theory of change is the explicit, testable if/then chain from activities to outcomes to long-term impact, with every ‘because’ stated out loud so the campaign can be argued against and revised.
It is more than a logic model: a logic model names outputs and outcomes; a theory of change commits to the causal logic that links them, and exposes that logic to challenge. A good theory of change is one that the campaign’s opponents would have to engage with, not one that the campaign can defend.
Practitioner guides (the Commons Library, the New Tactics in Human Rights primer, the Aspen Institute’s theory-of-change work) treat the toC as a living document — drafted before the campaign, revised when the evidence demands it, and quoted explicitly in the campaign’s strategic memos so the team is always arguing from the same chain.
Full page: [[theory-of-change]]. [source: theory-of-change] [source: commons-library]
FAQ
What is a theory of change?
A theory of change is the explicit, testable if/then chain from activities to outcomes to long-term impact, with every because stated out loud so the campaign can be argued against and revised. The full-page version of this definition lives on [[theory-of-change]].
How does a theory of change differ from a logic model?
It is more than a logic model: a logic model names outputs and outcomes; a theory of change commits to the causal logic that links them, and exposes that logic to challenge. A good theory of change is one that the campaign’s opponents would have to engage with, not one that the campaign can defend.
How should a campaign treat its theory of change?
Practitioner guides (the Commons Library, the New Tactics in Human Rights primer, the Aspen Institute’s theory-of-change work) treat the ToC as a living document — drafted before the campaign, revised when the evidence demands it, and quoted explicitly in the campaign’s strategic memos so the team is always arguing from the same chain [source: commons-library].
What makes a good theory of change?
A good theory of change is one that the campaign’s opponents would have to engage with — not one that the campaign can defend in isolation. The test is whether the chain is precise enough that an opponent can challenge a specific link, and the campaign can respond by revising that link rather than defending the whole chain.